Contents
00
Quick-Reference Glossary
The most important terms in every Deal Sheet report, defined in one place.
The critical distinction: Avg Nightly Rate and Market ADR are two different numbers. Avg Nightly Rate is what your specific comp set charges — it's the revenue model anchor. Market ADR is the broad-market benchmark from AirDNA/GoodNightStay. The revenue projection is built off the comp-set Avg Nightly Rate, not the market figure.
Comp-derived Avg Nightly Rate
The median nightly rate across the 5 comparable listings identified for this property. The rate anchor used in the revenue model — what your property should be able to charge. Sources: live Airbnb scrape (v2) or market-derived estimate (v1).
Market benchmark Market ADR
The published average daily rate for the entire STR market in the subject zip or metro. Covers all property types, sizes, and quality tiers. Used for benchmarking only — not the revenue model input. Sources: AirDNA, GoodNightStay.
GROSS Gross Revenue
Revenue before any deductions. Platform fees, taxes, management fees, and operating costs are not subtracted. This is what Airbnb/VRBO pays before they take their cut.
NET Net Revenue
Gross Revenue × (1 − 0.155). After platform fees only. Does not include taxes (~12–14%), management fees, or operating costs — those are always broken out separately.
Market metric RevPAR
Revenue Per Available Rental night. ADR × Occupancy Rate. Normalizes performance across pricing strategies. Used as a market health metric — not used directly in the revenue model.
Market + adjustment Occupancy Rate
Percentage of available nights booked. Market-level figure from AirDNA/GoodNightStay, adjusted ±5% based on the subject property's amenity and location quality relative to the market average.
Comp-derived Base ADR
The starting nightly rate used in the revenue projection model. Set to the comp-set median (Avg Nightly Rate). Seasonal multipliers are applied on top of this figure month by month.
15.5% of Gross Platform Fee
The host service fee charged by Airbnb or VRBO. Standard rate: ~15.5% of gross booking subtotal. Deducted before payout. Used to calculate Net from Gross across all reports.
01
How a Deal Sheet Report Is Built
The end-to-end pipeline from property address to delivered report.
When you submit a property address, NightlyRadar's underwriting pipeline runs the following steps:
- Property lookup — complex name, amenities, unit features, and location context confirmed via web research.
- Market data pull — current ADR, occupancy, RevPAR, and year-over-year trends pulled from public market intelligence sources (AirDNA, GoodNightStay, Rabbu, AirROI).
- Comparable listing identification — 5 comparable STR listings (same beds/baths, within 5 miles) identified. v1 reports use market-derived rate estimates. v2+ reports use rates live-scraped from Airbnb for defined check-in windows.
- Revenue model — a 12-month projection built using a Base ADR (anchored to the comp-set median) with seasonal multipliers derived from market data and the local event calendar.
- Regulatory research — STR permit requirements, tax obligations, and HOA/CC&R flags researched for the specific market and property type.
- Underwriting grade — the property is graded A–D using a defined rubric (see Section 09).
- Report generation and delivery — HTML email + printable PDF. Reports are processed immediately upon submission and delivered as quickly as possible — typically within minutes.
Important: All revenue figures are estimates, not guarantees. Actual performance depends on listing quality, management approach, market conditions, and factors outside NightlyRadar's visibility. This report is a decision-support tool, not a financial guarantee.
02
Platform Fees & Gross vs. Net
Every revenue figure is labeled as either Gross or Net. Here is exactly what each means.
Rule: Every revenue figure in a Deal Sheet report is labeled. GROSS = before platform fees. NET = after platform fees only. Taxes and operating costs are always called out separately — never embedded in the headline numbers.
Current Platform Fee Rates
| Platform | Host Fee | Effective Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airbnb | ~15.5% | Current | Split-fee model. Host pays ~15% of booking subtotal. Varies slightly by market and Superhost status. |
| VRBO | ~15.5% | Oct 29, 2026 | Combined: 8% service + 5% processing + 2% payment. Replaces prior owner fee structure effective Oct 29. |
How Net Is Calculated
Net Annual = Gross Annual × (1 − 0.155)
Net Monthly = Monthly Gross × (1 − 0.155)
We use 15.5% as the standard platform fee for all net calculations — the higher of the two platforms, providing a conservative net estimate.
What Is Not Included in Net
- Arizona TPT / lodging taxes: ~12–14% of gross (platforms collect and remit automatically in most markets)
- Property management fees: Typically 15–25% of gross if using a professional manager
- Operating costs: Cleaning, restocking, maintenance, insurance, HOA fees, mortgage — not modeled
- Platform guest fees: Charged to guests, not hosts — not relevant to host revenue
30+ day stays: Stays of 30+ consecutive days are exempt from Arizona lodging tax. This is the basis for the summer mid-term rental (MTR) strategy recommended in most Scottsdale reports — it eliminates the tax burden and simplifies the revenue structure during low-demand months.
03
Section 1: Executive Summary Metrics
The five headline numbers at the top of every report — and exactly how they connect to each other.
Why five tiles instead of four? The Comp Base Rate ($200) and the Event-Adjusted Avg Rate (~$255) answer different questions. The base rate tells you what comparable properties charge on a normal weekend. The event-adjusted average tells you what the model actually uses across the full year — after factoring in peak events, shoulder months, and summer lows. Both numbers belong in the executive summary because together they explain the Gross Annual figure. Without both, readers calculate $200 × 62% × 365 = $45K and wonder why the report shows $63K.
| Metric | Definition | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comp Base Rate | Median nightly rate across the 5 hand-selected comparable listings. This is the starting point for the revenue model — the floor rate before seasonal and event adjustments are applied. Not the number to multiply against annual occupancy to get gross revenue. | Comp set median. v2+: live Airbnb scrape for next available, next peak, and low-season windows. | Comp-derived |
| Event-Adjusted Avg Rate | Simple average of the 12 monthly ADRs used in the revenue projection model. Reflects the Comp Base Rate after all seasonal multipliers and event premiums are applied month by month. This is the rate that, combined with annual occupancy, best approximates the Gross Annual figure. Computed automatically from the revenue model — always consistent with the 12-month projection. | Derived from revenue model (Section 06). Computed as: sum of 12 monthly ADRs ÷ 12. | Model-derived |
| Occupancy | Estimated annual occupancy for 2BR STR properties in the subject zip code. Annual average — individual months vary significantly (35% in July vs. 87% in February for Scottsdale). Used as the executive summary reference; the revenue model applies month-specific occupancy rates, not this single figure. | AirDNA, GoodNightStay (most recent available month). Adjusted ±5% for property-specific factors. | Market benchmark |
| Gross Annual | Sum of the 12-month revenue projection. Derived from the event-calendar model — not a flat rate × occupancy × 365 calculation. Before platform fees, taxes, or operating costs. The tie-out note below the tiles explains how the event model produces this figure. | Derived from revenue model (Section 06). Sum of monthly (ADR × occ × days) for all 12 months. | GROSS |
| Net Annual | Gross Annual × (1 − 0.155). After platform fees only. Does not include taxes (~12–14%), management fees, or operating costs — those are broken out separately in Section 7. | Calculated from Gross Annual. | NET |
How the Metrics Connect
Comp Base Rate → starting point for seasonal multipliers
Event-Adjusted Avg → avg of (Base Rate × monthly multiplier) across 12 months
Gross Annual = Σ (monthly ADR × monthly occ % × days in month) for each of 12 months
Net Annual = Gross Annual × (1 − 0.155)
Practical check: Event-Adjusted Avg Rate × annual Occupancy × 365 will get you within ~10% of Gross Annual. The remaining difference is explained by month-by-month occupancy variation (87% in February vs. 35% in July). The tie-out note printed in every report makes this explicit.
04
Section 2: Market Snapshot
Market-level benchmarks and property-specific rate estimates.
Two ADR figures appear in every report — they measure different things:
Avg Nightly Rate (Executive Summary headline) = comp-set median. What your property should target. Built from the 5 comparable listings. This is the Base ADR used in the revenue model.
Market ADR (Market Snapshot section) = broad-market average from AirDNA/GoodNightStay. Covers all property types, sizes, and quality tiers. Used for context and benchmarking only — not used as the revenue model input.
Avg Nightly Rate (Executive Summary headline) = comp-set median. What your property should target. Built from the 5 comparable listings. This is the Base ADR used in the revenue model.
Market ADR (Market Snapshot section) = broad-market average from AirDNA/GoodNightStay. Covers all property types, sizes, and quality tiers. Used for context and benchmarking only — not used as the revenue model input.
Market Baseline
| Field | Definition | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Market Avg Daily Rate (ADR) | Broad-market average nightly rate for all STR properties in the subject market. Covers all bedroom counts, property types, and quality tiers. Shown as a range when two sources measure different geographies. Not averaged — range preserved to show both. Benchmark figure only — not the revenue model input. | AirDNA, GoodNightStay monthly reports |
| Annual Occupancy | Percentage of available nights booked across the market, annualized. Typically a trailing 12-month figure. | AirDNA, GoodNightStay |
| RevPAR | Revenue Per Available Rental night. ADR × Occupancy Rate. Normalizes performance regardless of pricing strategy. Used as a market health metric, not modeled directly. | AirROI, Rabbu (published figure) |
| YoY Occupancy Δ | Year-over-year change in market occupancy rate. Positive = market filling more nights than the same period last year. | GoodNightStay monthly trend reports |
| YoY ADR Δ | Year-over-year change in market average daily rate. Negative (rate compression) flagged in red; positive in green. | GoodNightStay, AirDNA |
This Property Estimate
| Field | Definition | How Derived |
|---|---|---|
| Base Weeknight | Estimated Sun–Thu nightly rate for this specific property. | Comp-set bottom quartile, adjusted for property-specific factors (age, floor, amenity tier relative to comps). |
| Weekend Rate | Estimated Fri–Sat nightly rate. | Comp-set midpoint + weekend demand premium (typically 15–25% above base in this market). |
| Peak Event Rate | Estimated nightly rate during highest-demand events (Barrett-Jackson, WM Phoenix Open, major holidays). | Market data shows 2–3× base rates during peak events. Applied to this property's base rate. |
| Est. Occupancy | Estimated annual occupancy for this specific property, adjusted from the market benchmark. | Market benchmark ± adjustment based on amenity level, location quality, and comp occupancy signals (High/Med/Low). |
05
Section 3: Comparable Listings
The five properties most similar to the subject property, operating as active STRs within 5 miles.
✅ Live Airbnb Scrape (v2 — current)
Comp rates are live-scraped from Airbnb for three defined check-in windows. Prices reflect what Airbnb actually shows for that listing on that date. If a listing is booked or blocked, the last known market estimate is shown with a † flag.
Live Scrape Methodology
| Window | Definition | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Next Available Weekend | Nearest Friday–Monday (3-night stay) at least 14 days from report date. | 14-day minimum avoids listings in advance-notice lock windows. 3-night stay meets most minimum-stay requirements. |
| Next Peak Weekend | Nearest event-adjacent Friday–Monday (Barrett-Jackson, WM Phoenix Open, Spring Training, major holiday). | Peak pricing is the most important data point for underwriting. |
| Low-Season Weekend | Nearest June–August Friday–Monday. | Summer floor pricing informs the MTR vs. STR strategy for low-season months. |
Comp Selection Criteria
- Same bedroom count (±0) and bathroom count (±0.5)
- Within 5-mile radius of subject property
- Active STR listing on Airbnb or VRBO — listings with a minimum stay of 28+ nights are excluded as medium-term rentals (MTR) and are not valid STR comps
- Similar property type (condo-to-condo, SFH-to-SFH preferred)
- Prioritize comps with amenity overlap (pool, parking, gated)
Occupancy Signal
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| High | Calendar is heavily booked; limited near-term availability. Indicates strong demand at listed price. |
| Med | Mix of booked and available dates. Typical market performance. |
| Low | Calendar is largely open. May indicate pricing issues, listing quality issues, or a newer listing still building reviews. |
No made-up URLs. If a real listing URL cannot be confirmed, the comp is listed by descriptive name only. We do not fabricate Airbnb listing links.
06
Section 4: 12-Month Revenue Projection
A month-by-month model of estimated gross and net revenue for the next 12 months.
The revenue model uses Avg Nightly Rate (comp-set median) as the Base ADR — not the Market ADR. The comp-set median is specific to properties matching the subject in the same submarket. It's a materially better anchor for underwriting a specific property than the broad-market average.
The Model
Monthly Revenue = Base ADR × Seasonal Multiplier × Occupancy Rate × Days in Month
12-Month Gross = Σ Monthly Revenue (all 12 months)
12-Month Net = 12-Month Gross × (1 − 0.155)
How Monthly ADR Is Set
- Base ADR = Avg Nightly Rate = comp-set median (v1: market estimate; v2: live scraped median)
- Seasonal multiplier is applied to Base ADR for each month based on demand tier:
| Demand Tier | Months (Scottsdale) | ADR Multiplier | Occ. Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Event Peak | Jan (Barrett-Jackson), Feb (WM Phoenix Open) | 158–179% of base | 82–87% |
| Peak Season | Dec, Mar | 110–130% of base | 72–80% |
| Early/Late Peak | Nov, Apr | 87–97% of base | 62–68% |
| Shoulder | Oct, May, Sep | 72–87% of base | 50–62% |
| Low Season | Jun, Jul, Aug | 55–58% of base | 35–38% |
Gross vs. Net in This Section
- GROSS All row-level monthly figures and the 12-month total are Gross — before platform fees, taxes, or any other deduction
- NET The "Est. Net After Platform Fees" row = 12-Month Gross × (1 − 0.155)
- Taxes (~12–14%), management fees, and operating costs are never embedded in any revenue figure — always broken out in a separate footnote below the table
Conservative vs. Optimistic ranges appear in The Verdict section, not the revenue table. The revenue table reflects the base case only. Conservative = ~80% of base. Optimistic = ~120% of base.
07
Section 5: 12-Month Demand Calendar
Events and periods that materially affect STR demand in the market over the next 12 months.
Impact Level Definitions
| Level | Meaning | Typical Rate Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| PEAK | Major national or regional draw. Historically 2–3× base ADR. Occupancy near 100% for well-positioned properties. | 2–3× base rate. 3–4 night minimum. Book out 6–8 weeks in advance. |
| HIGH | Strong demand driver. 20–40% above base ADR. Noticeable occupancy lift. | Raise 20–30% above base. Minimum stay recommended. |
| MEDIUM | Moderate demand lift, typically weekend-concentrated. 10–20% above base. | Weekend rate premium of 10–15%. |
| LOW | Seasonal low. Demand falls below base. Shift strategy to maximize occupancy over rate. | Reduce rates. Consider 30-day MTR stays. |
Calendar Data Source
Events are sourced from official event websites, local tourism boards (experiencescottsdale.com, scottsdaleaz.gov), and confirmed event calendars. Events beyond 6 months from report date are subject to scheduling changes — rate guidance should be confirmed closer to the event.
08
Section 6: Underwriting Notes & Due Diligence
Regulatory, legal, and operational risks specific to this property.
HOA / CC&R Flags
For condominium and townhome properties, HOA status is flagged as a critical item. A city STR license does not override HOA restrictions. HOAs in Arizona can impose minimum lease terms, restrict STR entirely, or require HOA registration of renters. This must be confirmed in writing with the HOA before closing.
🚨 Critical flags are raised when a condition could entirely prevent STR operation (HOA prohibition, known regulatory ban, or zoning exclusion). These must be resolved before any STR investment thesis is valid.
Licensing Requirements
Licensing requirements are based on the municipality's published STR ordinances as of report date. Requirements can change — always verify with the city directly before applying for a permit.
Tax Rates
Tax rates are based on publicly available combined state + county + city TPT rates for the subject municipality. Airbnb and VRBO collect and remit lodging taxes on behalf of hosts in most Arizona markets — confirm this applies to your specific market and platform before assuming automatic remittance.
09
Section 7: The Verdict & Grade Rubric
The summary judgment on whether this property should be pursued as an STR.
Grade Rubric
| Grade | Criteria | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| A | Strong amenities, proven STR market, clear event demand, HOA confirmed clear, $50K+ gross potential. | BUY |
| B+ | Good comp set, solid market, strong location. One open question (HOA unconfirmed, seasonal concern, or minor regulatory uncertainty). | WATCH → BUY on resolution |
| B | Decent fundamentals but material limitation (weaker amenities, softer market, HOA risk, or limited comp data). | WATCH |
| C+ / C | Marginal market, limited comps, significant seasonal softness, or notable regulatory risk. | PASS or WATCH |
| D | HOA likely prohibits STR, no comp market, regulatory headwinds, or fundamental underwriting fails. | PASS |
Revenue Ranges
| Scenario | Derivation |
|---|---|
| Conservative | Base case × 0.80. Assumes below-average management, slower ramp-up, or mild market softness. |
| Base Case | Revenue model output. Assumes active management, dynamic pricing, and quality listing. |
| Optimistic | Base case × 1.20. Assumes Superhost status, premium listing photos, strong reviews, and above-average peak-event capture. |
All ranges are GROSS (before platform fees). Apply 15.5% to get net ranges.
10
Data Sources
Every external data source used in Deal Sheet reports.
| Source | Used For | Access Method |
|---|---|---|
| AirDNA | Market ADR, occupancy, RevPAR benchmarks; YoY trends | Publicly available market reports and web search |
| GoodNightStay | Monthly Scottsdale STR market trend reports (ADR, occ, RevPAR by month) | Published blog/report series; web search |
| Rabbu | Annual revenue estimates for 2BR STR by market; RevPAR cross-reference | Public market pages; web search |
| AirROI | ADR and revenue benchmarks by market and property type | Public market data pages; web search |
| Airbnb (v2) | Live comp nightly rates for defined check-in windows | Playwright-based scraper (proprietary) |
| ExperienceScottsdale.com / scottsdaleaz.gov | Events calendar, demand drivers | Public event calendars; web search |
| Scottsdale / Phoenix city websites | STR licensing requirements, permit fees, tax rates | Municipal websites; web search |
| HOA databases / direct contact | HOA contact info, known CC&R flags | Web search + direct HOA inquiry recommended |
AirDNA ToS note: NightlyRadar uses publicly available AirDNA market-level data (published reports, blog posts, indexed market pages) — not the AirDNA API. Direct API access to comp-level data requires a paid AirDNA license. We do not access or reproduce AirDNA proprietary comp data.
11
Known Limitations & Disclaimers
What a Deal Sheet report can and cannot tell you.
What It Can Tell You
- What comparable properties in the market are charging on Airbnb/VRBO
- What the market's current ADR, occupancy, and RevPAR benchmarks look like
- A credible range of gross and net annual revenue for the property type in this location
- Which months and events drive the most STR demand in this market
- What permits, licenses, and taxes apply to operating an STR at this address
- Known HOA/CC&R risk factors and what to confirm before closing
What It Cannot Tell You
- Actual future revenue. All projections are estimates based on current market conditions. Markets change.
- HOA approval. We flag the risk and provide the HOA contact. Confirmation must come from the HOA directly.
- Unit-specific condition. The report is based on property type and complex — not an interior inspection. Listing quality, photos, and furnishings materially affect performance.
- Management quality. Base case assumes active management and dynamic pricing. Poor management can reduce revenue by 20–40%.
- Market shifts. New supply events or demand changes after report delivery can materially change comp set and market benchmarks.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, financial, or tax advice. NightlyRadar is not a licensed real estate broker, investment advisor, appraiser, or CPA. All revenue estimates are projections based on publicly available market data and are not guaranteed. Always conduct independent due diligence, consult a licensed CPA or attorney, and verify all regulatory requirements before making any investment decision.
Data Freshness
Market data is current as of report date. STR market conditions, platform fee rates, and local regulations can change. Reports older than 30 days should be re-run before making a final investment decision.
12
The Deal Sheet vs. Automated Estimators
How our methodology differs from tools like AirDNA Rentalizer — and why the differences matter for underwriting a specific property.
This is not a criticism of AirDNA. AirDNA is the industry's best broad-market data source, and we use their public market benchmarks in every report. What this section explains is why automated estimators and The Deal Sheet answer different questions — and why property-level underwriting requires the Deal Sheet's approach.
Glossary: Term-by-Term Comparison
The table below defines every key term as AirDNA uses it, as The Deal Sheet uses it, and why the distinction matters for a buyer making an offer decision.
| Term / Metric | AirDNA Definition | Deal Sheet Definition | Why the Deal Sheet approach is more useful for underwriting |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADR Average Daily Rate |
Historical trailing average. Total revenue collected by a property (or market) divided by total nights booked over the trailing period. Reflects what was actually charged and paid — including underperforming listings, off-peak nights, and discounted stays. | Current asking price. The median nightly rate across 5 hand-selected comparable listings, scraped live from Airbnb for specific upcoming check-in windows (next available weekend, next peak event, low season). | A buyer needs to know what the property should earn going forward, not what a mixed pool of properties earned last year. Scraped asking prices reflect today's market pricing, Superhost premiums, and current demand signals — not historical averages dragged down by underpriced or mismanaged listings. |
| Occupancy Rate | Historical trailing. Booked nights ÷ available nights over the trailing period, across the comp set or market. Includes all minimum-stay configurations (nightly STR and monthly MTR). | Market benchmark from AirDNA/GoodNightStay public data for 2BR STR properties in the subject zip, adjusted ±5% for the subject property's amenity and location quality. Applied month-by-month using seasonal multipliers. | Occupancy methodology is similar — both are market-derived. The Deal Sheet's seasonal breakdown (month-by-month, not one annual average) is more useful: it shows when the property will be booked vs. empty, which drives the MTR vs. STR strategy decision for summer months. |
| Projected Revenue | A single annualized estimate: ADR × occupancy × 365. No seasonal breakdown. No event-week spikes. The same rate is implicitly applied to January (Barrett-Jackson week) as July (Phoenix summer). Market-wide seasonality is factored via the index weighting, but the output is one number. | 12-month model: Base ADR × seasonal multiplier × occupancy × days, summed month by month. January and February carry 158–179% of base ADR. June–August carry 55–58%. The event calendar drives multipliers directly — Barrett-Jackson and WM Phoenix Open are modeled explicitly. | For Scottsdale properties, the flat annual model systematically underestimates revenue. Jan–Feb alone (Barrett-Jackson + WM Phoenix Open) can represent 35–40% of annual gross in 8 weeks. A single annualized rate does not capture this — and that's the most critical data point for a buyer evaluating the deal. |
| Comp Selection | Algorithmic relevance-weighted index. Includes all listings matching bed/bath count in the area, regardless of property type, minimum stay length, or management quality. Medium-term rental (MTR) listings with 28–90 day minimums are included if they match the bed/bath filter. | Hand-selected. Same complex first (for condos/apartments). Then adjacent, then nearby — prioritizing amenity match at each radius. Listings with 28+ night minimums are excluded as MTR, not STR, comps. Type must match (condo-to-condo, SFH-to-SFH). Any deviation noted explicitly. | Including MTR listings in an STR comp set is a category error. A listing that requires a 28-night minimum has a fundamentally different pricing structure (monthly rates ÷ 28+ nights = low apparent ADR) and a different buyer profile. Mixing them into an STR ADR calculation depresses the result and misrepresents the STR market. The Deal Sheet's hand-selected, type-matched, STR-only comps produce an ADR that is actually comparable to what the subject property will compete against. |
| Net Revenue / NOI |
Net Operating Income = Projected Revenue − Operating Expenses. AirDNA's "Operating Expenses" bundle platform fees, lodging taxes, and HOA fees into a single deduction (~37% of gross). The result is a single NOI figure with no line-item transparency. | Net Revenue = Gross × (1 − 0.155) — platform fees only. Taxes (~12–14%), management fees, HOA fees, and operating costs are always broken out separately and never embedded in the headline Net figure. Each deduction is labeled and explained. | Bundling fees and taxes into a single "operating expenses" line obscures the cost structure. A buyer needs to know what platform fees cost, what taxes cost, and what HOA costs separately — because each one is negotiable, avoidable, or variable (e.g., 30+ day stays eliminate lodging tax). Transparency wins over simplicity for real underwriting. |
| Confidence Score | A traffic-light signal (High / Medium / Low) reflecting the statistical confidence in the projection, driven primarily by the number of comparable listings available in the system. Low = sparse comp data. High = dense market with many comparables. | Not a numeric score. Instead: an underwriting grade (A–D) with an explicit condition statement (e.g., "Conditional on HOA clearance"). The condition is the most actionable information — it tells the buyer exactly what to verify, not just how confident the model is. | "Low confidence" tells a buyer to be careful. "B+ — conditional on HOA clearance" tells them exactly what to do next. Actionable conditions outperform abstract confidence scores for decision-making at the offer stage. |
| Cap Rate | Calculated when purchase price is provided (NOI ÷ purchase price). Blank when no price is entered. | Not calculated. The Deal Sheet provides all inputs needed for a buyer or their agent to calculate cap rate independently: gross revenue range, platform fees, tax rates, and a flag to confirm HOA fees. Intentionally left to the buyer — we don't know the purchase price or financing terms. | Cap rate is only meaningful with an accurate NOI and a real purchase price. Because the Deal Sheet separates each cost component, buyers (and their CPAs) can model their own cap rate with actual numbers rather than AirDNA's bundled estimates. More accurate inputs produce more accurate cap rates. |
| Demand Calendar | Not included in Rentalizer. Market-wide seasonality is embedded in the revenue index but specific events and their rate guidance are not surfaced. | Full 12-month event calendar with impact level (PEAK / HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW) and specific rate guidance for each event. Barrett-Jackson, WM Phoenix Open, Cactus League Spring Training, Thanksgiving, holiday peak, and all material local demand events are itemized with dates. | The event calendar is the most actionable section in the report for an active STR operator. Knowing that WM Phoenix Open week historically produces 2–3× base rates allows a buyer to price correctly from day one. A flat annual number offers no guidance on when to raise rates, when to set minimums, or when to pivot to MTR. |
| Regulatory & HOA Flags |
Not included in Rentalizer. | Full due diligence section: permit requirements, annual permit cost, licensing checklist, combined tax rate, HOA/CC&R flag with specific guidance, and a critical-flag alert when HOA status is a binary go/no-go for the STR thesis. | For condominium properties, HOA status is the single most important factor — it can void the entire STR thesis. An estimator that doesn't surface this sends a buyer into a transaction blind. The Deal Sheet treats regulatory and HOA flags as mandatory outputs, not optional context. |
Numerical Comparison — 8055 E Thomas Rd, Scottsdale AZ (Example)
The following illustrates how the two approaches produce different outputs for the same property and the same comp set.
| Metric | AirDNA Rentalizer | The Deal Sheet | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADR | $156.3 | $200 | AirDNA's weighted average includes a 28-night minimum MTR listing ($95.5 historical ADR) that is not a valid STR comp. Removing that listing from the set produces a comp average of ~$187. The Deal Sheet's scraped asking prices reflect current market rates, not trailing historical averages blended with MTR listings. |
| Occupancy | 62.3% | 62% | Effectively identical. Both draw on the same underlying market data for Old Town Scottsdale 2BR condos. |
| Gross Annual Revenue | $35.5K | $63K | Two drivers: (1) higher ADR ($200 vs $156), and (2) AirDNA uses a flat annual model while the Deal Sheet models Jan–Feb event weeks at $420–$475/night (Barrett-Jackson + WM Phoenix Open). Those 8 weeks alone project $23K gross — more than half of AirDNA's full-year estimate. |
| Net / NOI | $22.2K (NOI after bundled expenses) | ~$53K (after platform fees only); ~$36K (after fees + taxes); ~$28–32K (after fees + taxes + management) | Not directly comparable. AirDNA bundles all operating expenses into one deduction. The Deal Sheet gives you the gross and each deduction separately so you can build your own P&L with real numbers. |
| Confidence / Grade | Low (sparse comp data) | B+ — Conditional on HOA clearance | AirDNA's "Low" reflects the statistical limitation of their database in this submarket. The Deal Sheet's B+ reflects the underwriting fundamentals — strong location, proven demand, one material condition to resolve. |
Bottom line: AirDNA Rentalizer is a useful screening tool for getting a rough ballpark across a large number of properties quickly. The Deal Sheet is a property-specific underwriting instrument built for buyers who are close to writing an offer and need numbers they can defend. They serve different stages of the decision process — the Deal Sheet picks up where the estimator leaves off.